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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 3-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model