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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:58) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to TB 20, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model