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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP