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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to ATL 17, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-37-A.Chesley.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model