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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-K.Trask pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Thompkins [91-M.Dickerson].

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model