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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) 35-A.Williams right end to TB 36 for 14 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP