Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(8:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TB 33, Center-48-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 45 for 12 yards (44-T.Andersen).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model