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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.42 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model