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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 53-D.Cole reported in as eligible. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 11 yards (42-J.Jones; 53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model