4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 21

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 14-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model