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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to TEN 16 for 2 yards (6-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model