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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.86 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model