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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model