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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 25-H.Haskins to JAX 44 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -1.48 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model