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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model