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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Giants 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model