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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 21 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 25 for 18 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.09 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model