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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 7
New York Giants 24 – Minnesota Vikings 24
What Actually Happened
(8:38) 8-D.Jones up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
The Three Options
GO
+3.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK
+1.69 EP
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
