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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 24 – New York Giants 31

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 14-R.Wright punts 61 yards to NYG 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for 7 yards (26-K.Nwangwu).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model