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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 59

New York Giants 31 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to MIN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model