4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to NYG 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James to NYG 19 for 10 yards (25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model