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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 16 for no gain (6-D.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model