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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(:17) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model