4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 16

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP