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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 13

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 9-R.Gould 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model