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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 17 – San Francisco 49ers 41

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 88-C.Johnson pushed ob at SF 45 for 5 yards (22-J.Jenkins). 2 YAC

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model