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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to SF 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP