4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to KC 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.32 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model