4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 17 for 6 yards (42-A.Wingard; 45-K.Chaisson).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model