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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to KC 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 20 for 6 yards (57-C.Johnson; 20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model