4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to JAX 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP