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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 12

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model