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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model