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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 5-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to CIN 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP