Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(12:23) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to KC 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-K.Toney to KC 36 for 12 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model