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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase to KC 6 for 35 yards (6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model