Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

(9:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to CIN 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model