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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 31 yards to CIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP