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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.86 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model