Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 54 yards to KC 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 24-S.Moore pushed ob at KC 47 for 29 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.82 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -2.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model