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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP