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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model