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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 45

Washington Commanders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to ARI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.25 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model