Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Washington Commanders 7

(1:41) 16-N.Cooney punts 56 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 12 for 5 yards (35-C.Matthew).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.20 EP
71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model