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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.28 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model