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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 16-N.Cooney punts 41 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 25 for 5 yards (0-Z.Pascal).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model