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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 10 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to ARI 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 40 for 8 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model