4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 67

Washington Commanders 17 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to ARI 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 13 yards (39-J.Reaves; 51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP