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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 16-N.Cooney punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 29 for 10 yards (52-V.Dimukeje). PENALTY on WAS-20-J.Martin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.61 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model