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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.91 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP